I arrived late to the discussion of the survey Adimark. No one speaks more than it these days, is ephemeral and of public discussion. But suppose that comment at this time is more than an act of laziness, a critical exercise is an effort of this blog by avoiding the agenda of the media.
Certainly that is done up there no more. Noting the previous post one can realize that, even that has been designed to criticize the continued misuse of statistics in the media, indeed also serves to show to what extent are the mass media which determine what issues are important to talk . In Luhmann As I said Paul Morris in the comments, post on the third could be seen as a way the media system is closed upon itself and reproduce from its own elements. Nothing more recursive a media (this blog) talking about what was published in other media (La Tercera) . Anyway. About
Adimark survey is very striking that in all the papers that were copied reproduced as is an expression that was on the newspaper report that gave the company: Bachelet had supposedly fallen beyond "psychological barrier " 40 points. It is curious that conceptual innovation. Maybe some psychologist discovered one day that exactly 40 points in the human psyche crispa, is excited or put on alert. I do not own this information and I I blame my ignorance, but apparently both Adimark as all newspapers that copied the phrase as if they were following the 'greatest monkey' are well aware of the undoubted existence of this particular barrier . They are wise and virtuous people that's why I admire them.
With or without 'psychological theory' behind the statement is clearly wrong : a survey with an error of 3.4% like Adimark, a result that shows that support for the management of Bachelet is on a 39.1% no use to say with certainty that said support dropped the famous barrier. More interesting would have been to highlight the long-term trend data showing . In April 2006 the management support of Bachelet was a 62.1% and is now 39.1% . Just one can remember that, although the poll Frei CEP reached a 28% approval rating, the coalition remained in power and that even though Lagos faced the first candidate Right able to win votes and to embarrass the opponent in YEARS.
The survey also showed some known: neither major political coalitions able produce much enthusiasm among citizens . The quote that The Mercury describes this anthology is "Adimark also shows that the approval rate close to the Alliance (20.8%) exceeds the Coalition (20%)." It means that Mercury a difference of 0.8% is enough to leave victorious .
I will not presume an expert in statistics. What happens is that none of the calculations necessary to not end up talking nonsense as the former requires more skill than the basics: addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. The most complex one is a square root. Is there any excuse?
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