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Is this false consciousness? How ridiculous

"Without fully understand his words, very ashamed of ourselves, we said yes, yes. We were fascinated by the security distilled Gabriel. We looked ecstatic and anxious because we now percatábamos Gabriel actually looked much higher (as if magically grown in the last hours). Ah, yes, Gabriel looked flawless, whole, distant, with his eyes furious (...). Because Gabriel had always loved and was, we felt now by daylight, a little whiter than all of us. "

Diamela Eltit, Manpower.

A taxi driver
"... If we live in a bubble here, hear ... I have a friend, you know, a man with no leg having a liquor store. One day I called like 4 and 20 in the morning because it was on a roll, I get there and it was pa 'you were to buy cocaine. Bitch, I said, it makes me get up at this hour pa 'the shit stuff. In short, I left pa 'San Bernardo and crowded streets, I could not understand. Do you know what happened? They were waiting for the micro can 'boss. At that time those people get up pa 'go to work, can claaaro' ( true, so it is rather silly to insist that "the Chilean loose"). If the national government are not 'saints ( ridge, and started, all politicians are crooks, politics is useless, blablabla ...), I worked in a municipality in the military government ( military government "? Perhaps not see the contradiction? ), I met a lady in the neighborhood led the JAP, the lady ended up taking home pa 'she and her 5 grandchildren. What are we talking about? And now the criminals walk around with machine guns firing, killing the police ( his voice will grow at the same rate as the meter, gulp). And if the policeman pegao would have no more shooting pelusón, would they have done all this tribute? Naaaada, which laid off, they give the generals. If they agree that the Coalition is well because they earn votes ( was not a conspiracy theory could not miss ). You boss believes that if it comes Lavin and says 'all going to jail no more' Are you going to vote for him? Noooo po, boss. If blood is blood can. " It can family ', if anyone has a brother, a son who is delinquent, wants to help, does not want to mess it pa' in, one speaks, think 'how I can straighten this goat, how to help him' but if they say they're going to jail, do you think you are going to give the vote to Lavin is the only fix this mess? Claaaro can not 'boss (so he has problems with the family, I see ). (...) And argue against the Peruvians. If I live there in Ñuñoa where I have several neighbors are Peru and educated people are professionals, talk like 8 languages, you better speak Castilian ( uf, at least not xenophobic, besides having excellent writers, Bryce Echenique, Bayly ...). In contrast, the Mapuche, those who are lazy themselves, if they produce nothing ( crest, which put me naive for a second ), moreover, that the Chileans have a Europe full of thieves po boss! Claaaro po, if you are professional people, with silver to Spain, show your passport and start to treat you badly, then what we mean, do we mean both against the Peruvians ( I'm going to write the patent for this type ) ... "

Nanny:
" ... Oh, yes, luckily for me I has happened, but a neighbor took out a knife and ( how people exaggerate to make your entertaining stories ) of this size and forced to hand the wallet over there where I live , terriiible. I die a thing happens to me, so fearful I am, imagine if when you entrai to the kitchen, jump! ( is the funniest thing ), how to jump if I get mugged, noo, how scary that I hope nothing ever happens. I 'm scared all the streets, walking well quickie, quickie well so they do not pass me anything and pa 'lueguito get to my house ( good, once we spent on the street and looking down, sure that's pure shock). Yes, scare me all that to me why, why, oh how you say ... why I miss my military government of General Pinochet, because there indeed who was all tidy, not like now it seems everyone do what they want no more , all ( gulp!, I can not believe in my own house, what to do, what to do!?, I stand at the table, I leave the kitchen, do not enter more ) if there is no longer security for ... "

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I wonder if this qualifies as 'popular fascism' or perhaps I am being too elitist and should feel less discomfort compared to the demands, desires, fears and desires popular. What I do know is that socialists and communists, with or without fall of the Berlin Wall, left these areas for a long time and the UDI is the won. Socialists because they were always too intellectual and I guess the communists laziness or because the theory that the proletariat would say theirs anyway.

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for now I have no explanation to understand the popular taste for authoritarianism, but there are key texts put: the insecurity of living in damaged areas of the city in which the state appears only in repressive aspect, therefore, seems to serve only for that. Maybe the criminals have more about their lives and be more aware of the precariousness of their situation.

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And some say I exalted fascist to me. JA.

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build majorities

As social research is not neutral, whenever an object is measured study also modifying it. This story is an example of how research questionnaires could be manipulated to achieve results that suit to their taste. The trick here is to introduce a bias by questions asked and the order in which they are made , but if someone had the intention to put numbers to their personal opinion to give more universal appearance, could simply invent rather than be bothered to "investigate"

B ernard ( B or Mr. Woolley ) tells Humphrey (H ) that the prime minister wants to reinstate the military service because he has a survey that says 64% of the population would support such action. Humphrey then advises Bernard to publish another survey showing that most of the population is against to reinstate the military. Bernard wonders how to accomplish that and Humphrey explains:

H: You know how it happens: a beautiful young woman about you. Obviously you want to take a good impression, do not want to seem silly, does it? Then she starts asking questions: "Mr. Woolley, are you concerned about the number of young people out of work?"
B: Yes
H: "Are you worried by rising crime among teenagers?"
B: Yes
H : "Do you think there is a lack of discipline in our schools?"
B: Yes
H : "Do you think young people need some authority and leadership in their lives?"
B: Yes
H "Do you think you meet the challenges?"
B: Yes
H : "Would you agree to reintroduce National Service?"
B : Emm, well, I guess it could be.
H: "Yes or no?"
B: Yes
H: Of course I would agree, Bernard. After all what you said you could not say no to that last question. Then do not mention the first 5 questions and publish only the last.
B: Is that really what they do?
H: Well, not prestigious, but those not so many. Alternatively, the young woman could get the opposite result.
B: How? H
: "Mr. Woolley, concerned about the danger of war?"
B: Yes
H : "We are concerned about the increase in arms?"
B: Yes
H : "Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teach them how to kill?"
B: Yes
H : "Do you oppose the reinstatement of the military?"
B: Yes
H: You see, Bernard. A perfect balanced sample.

Perhaps the inability to observe without changing is not a feature of social research. Famous examples such as the Schrödinger cat show that harsher discipline (those that sociologists sometimes enjoy relativizing ) also face this situation.

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The dialogue between these two politicians seeking majority circumstantial and comes from a fictional British television series Yes Minister called and the sample is taken and very loosely translated from here .

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Can I Use My Pur Filter After It Expires

Phi3stas homelands k3wl s0 r!

In comments on a previous post someone asked What is postmodern? Sometimes things like this are best illustrated by example:

If anyone thinks that is a joke, be convinced by clicking here . We leave for another day the discussion on the issue of national identity and those cans, but I anticipate that those who think that there is no such national identity crisis , not even in the light of initiatives such as this inn .

There is always some story in the ideology of ' roots' , of \u200b\u200bthe 'real ' , what ' own' . Whenever someone is outside these official versions are used to mask conflicts and often have more to do with the power to turn than anything else, for example the cueca supposedly so very Chilean, is the national dance since Pinochet came to give this category by decree in 1979. In the country always had more success and ranchera tunes.

is also the problem of fundamentalism: assume that our truth is in origin and that everything that comes next is a betrayal of that origin . Some of it is in what is said in the blog 10:00 a.m. (surely there are more, but it was all I found, if Pedro Morande or Huasos Quincheros would have surely blog linking to them).

Delivery to the beach, next update around the corner.

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What is a psychological barrier? Bad

I arrived late to the discussion of the survey Adimark. No one speaks more than it these days, is ephemeral and of public discussion. But suppose that comment at this time is more than an act of laziness, a critical exercise is an effort of this blog by avoiding the agenda of the media.

Certainly that is done up there no more. Noting the previous post one can realize that, even that has been designed to criticize the continued misuse of statistics in the media, indeed also serves to show to what extent are the mass media which determine what issues are important to talk . In Luhmann As I said Paul Morris in the comments, post on the third could be seen as a way the media system is closed upon itself and reproduce from its own elements. Nothing more recursive a media (this blog) talking about what was published in other media (La Tercera) . Anyway. About

Adimark survey is very striking that in all the papers that were copied reproduced as is an expression that was on the newspaper report that gave the company: Bachelet had supposedly fallen beyond "psychological barrier " 40 points. It is curious that conceptual innovation. Maybe some psychologist discovered one day that exactly 40 points in the human psyche crispa, is excited or put on alert. I do not own this information and I I blame my ignorance, but apparently both Adimark as all newspapers that copied the phrase as if they were following the 'greatest monkey' are well aware of the undoubted existence of this particular barrier . They are wise and virtuous people that's why I admire them.

With or without 'psychological theory' behind the statement is clearly wrong : a survey with an error of 3.4% like Adimark, a result that shows that support for the management of Bachelet is on a 39.1% no use to say with certainty that said support dropped the famous barrier. More interesting would have been to highlight the long-term trend data showing . In April 2006 the management support of Bachelet was a 62.1% and is now 39.1% . Just one can remember that, although the poll Frei CEP reached a 28% approval rating, the coalition remained in power and that even though Lagos faced the first candidate Right able to win votes and to embarrass the opponent in YEARS.

The survey also showed some known: neither major political coalitions able produce much enthusiasm among citizens . The quote that The Mercury describes this anthology is "Adimark also shows that the approval rate close to the Alliance (20.8%) exceeds the Coalition (20%)." It means that Mercury a difference of 0.8% is enough to leave victorious .

I will not presume an expert in statistics. What happens is that none of the calculations necessary to not end up talking nonsense as the former requires more skill than the basics: addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. The most complex one is a square root. Is there any excuse?

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surveys: kicking with alternate numbers

Cristián Bofill, director of The Third , feared, hated and respected. Mateo has a reputation for being a workaholic boss and demanding: they have hundreds of stories from arbitrary dismissal, for long hours in the drafting of the paper, countless challenges to his subordinates for lack of thoroughness or not having any of the information. But all its rigor has not served absolutely nothing when it comes to publishing statistics reliably, it would be time to start taking the matter seriously.

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statistical errors The Third are repeated , which is more serious considering for some time that the newspaper decided to build its own center of surveys. What helps them produce their own data if they are using them so badly? Let only a couple of mistakes.

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2 + 2 = 5 (for extremely high values \u200b\u200bof 2 ...).

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The last survey was published in two shifts: Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, he said on the first page that " Alvear is installed as the best presidential rival Piñera." This is the chart that accompanied the note:

The tie between Soledad Alvear and Piñera by 45% is evident. However, to presume from these data that actually Piñera beats Lagos and Insulza a little more complicated. The first thing to keep in mind (which is obvious, but the paper seems to consider minor) is that survey data are always estimates and the actual value of each number moves between certain margins : this is a confidence interval and corresponds to the value of the estimator + / - the value of the estimation error.

Another way to see if Lagos wins Piñera e Insulza is a difference of proportions test for independent samples . According to the calculations of this blogger, the statistic test (z) of the comparison between Piñera and Lagos da and between 1.4845 and Insulza Piñera da 1.5011, considering a confidence level of 95% and a sample size of 800 cases. Both test statistics are within the acceptance region: no history to say that one (Piñera) is greater than the other (Lagos or Insulza). Piñera That is not only tied with Soledad Alvear. Lagos also tied with Insulza.

The editorial staff of interpreting the data prefer a rather more free, "however, the former Minister Alvear lost ground in their dispute with Piñera. In July two-Insulza and the helmsman of the DC-got a draw against Piñera (...). Now, although the former minister close the gap with Piñera (42% vs. 47%) is second Alvear . The text continues by stating that "despite having suffered their pole position in the presidential race RN the flagship is not surpassed by any of the figures in the Coalition: Alvear and tied with Lagos and Insulza exceeds five points .

In the fall of the same article says that "the standard bearer RN barrier does not exceed 50% compared to the top 3 cards of the ruling party ": reality, however, is that support for Piñera among the population, according to the calculation of confidence interval should be between 46.6% and 53.4%, ie may well be over 50% .

Soledad Alvear, the best ever.

On Sunday published the results of the evaluation of public figures. The title page 8 reads: "Alvear leading political ranking and outperforms the PS presidential." Also presented the following chart:

thumbs shows the variation of the estimator since the previous survey, carried in July. Whether the difference is significant would require further calculation we will not do here. I'll settle for actually show what is said in the headline is not true : an estimate of confidence intervals shows that the value for the people of the positive evaluation of Soledad Alvear could be among 65.6% and 72.4% . The Insulza could be among 63.6% and 70.4% and Lagos between 56.6% and 63.4% . Intervals as Soledad Alvear and Insulza overlap, you can not say that the president of the DC is heading a ranking: there is actually a statistical tie with Insulza.

Knowledge and news.

There is nothing problematic (at least from my perspective, a journalist may think otherwise) use surveys as a tool of construction news, provided they are used well. The problem surely arises when the imperative for 'hit' or have an interesting story conflicts with what the data say: understand that there is nothing more boring and exciting than a headline saying "TIE! ". I imagine that the news judgments requires that there be a winner, even at the expense of discrediting little a little to their polling center.

anyone else inclined to conspiracy theories that I could draw the following conclusion: The Third is right and is interested in building a climate of opinion unfavorable to the possible pre-socialist candidates . This is difficult to prove. What we do know, thanks to Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann is that the climate of opinion is very important for how individuals decide to vote. Anyway, I would not go so far as to say that the suspicious are wrong: on the contrary, it is the responsibility of the newspaper ensure public confidence in writing and keep a good image . The burden of proof lies with the newspaper, not the public. If you are served to the public to distrust and arguments presented in large print and color cartoons, the fault of La Tercera.

Recommended Reading:
Public Opinion Does Not Exist of Pierre Bourdieu.
reporting How survey of Eduardo Arriagada .

Sources: the graphics were removed from the editions of Saturday 1 and Sunday September 2, La Tercera. Extracts of the texts also originate there.

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What Is The Best Ar Tonelico

One can distinguish easily economist meters. It takes just a single signal: if it is mentioned in conversation the concept of ' alternative cost ', we can say with 99% confidence that the subject involved the economy grows.

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Sociologists often say with some irony (and perhaps with some bitterness, after all there is no Nobel Prize in sociology) that economists are " the enemy ', but one can still recognize that the concept of' alternative cost 'who invented these' opponents' can be quite enlightening and helpful.

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For example, National Priorities, a U.S. organization, has launched a study that analyzes the alternative cost of the invasion Iraq, breaking it down to the local level. Ie you can see what things could have done if there is no game playing drums and singing the Star Spangled Banner with swollen chest to find the famous jingoism and false WMDs in Iraq ("War Without going to France is like going deer hunting accordion Without Your '). These comparisons are often made because they are very eloquent, but the grace of this study is that it takes the local level analysis and data are available for each electoral district.

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Regarding the current status of this blog I think it goes without saying something, I respect those who visit. For example, today I learned that have been of great help to people who came down here looking at things such as Google :

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modern aquarium *

* incompatible with antibiotics alcohol

* see how many styles of clothing are in Chile

* nail the nail that

* the brad history

* that the difference between implicit and explicit picture

* Halloween recipes

* Duration of Frankenstein

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So if Google follows people to me with questions about cooking, pornography, classic literature, construction, fashion, aquarium and medicine is because I must be a kind of oracle and I had not realized so confused me. Then inform readers that I am removing the cobwebs, changing bulbs (plop!), Driving the squatters and fixing leaks. Little by little we will be picking up the pace of renovation. Yes I do not think that includes explicit photos at the moment, but do not rule anything.

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visit us soon.

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